What we can learn from 1848
As a historical proxy for the uncertainty we face today, I often think of the 1848 Revolutions in France1.
The seeds of the 1848 Revolutions were planted in the Napoleonic Wars that stretched 23 years, from 1792 to 1815. These wars pitted a belligerent France under Napoleon Bonaparte against shifting coalitions of major European powers. A new Europe designed from the Congress of Vienna would ensure a longer term peace plan that checked the potential for another Napoleon. As a result, Europe did not have a war at the same scale until nearly a century later, with World War I2.
To maintain peace, European leaders attempted to freeze the continent into an idealized version of itself. They fixed boundaries and cultures in place, with absolute monarchies overseeing rebalanced military might to enforce order. While these constraints ensured few threats to the status quo from without, absolute monarchs maintained their grasp on power by stifling nationalism, economic mobility, and political engagement from the lower and middle classes.
But this top-down control struggled against material headwinds. The working population of this era faced disruption from the Industrial Revolution, pressuring traditional artisans and worker compensation as outputs became more commoditized. Artisans struggled to adapt to mechanized production that transformed the nature of earnings and work. Furthermore, wealth was protected by the Congress of Vienna in the landed aristocracy while manufacturing capital was taking a bigger bite of the economic pie.
This trend coincided with increasing rural populations that migrated to cities, further depressing labor dynamics in urban areas. Agricultural underperformance exacerbated by fewer agricultural workers and a continent-wide potato blight further pushed more of the population away from farms and into cities across Europe.
As the population had plenty to complain about, cultural shifts now provided more outlets to both adopt new ideas and express grievances. Adult male literacy became commonplace and newspapers flourished. As voting rights were limited to a shrinking base of landowners, France is estimated to have had almost as many newspapers as eligible voters. Revolutionary papers championed constitutions, voting, and democracy to an angry and impoverished population still smoldering from the French Revolution a few generations prior.
This led to large scale, violent protests against the monarchy and the government that, over a few days, led to the collapse of the July Monarchy instated nearly 20 years earlier. The people elected Charles-Louis Napoleon Bonaparte, Napoleon’s nephew, before he declared himself emperor and ended France’s Second Republic. His legacy seems mixed and overshadowed by his much more influential uncle.
Sadly, the immediate aftermath of 1848 would suggest these revolutions failed to garner results. Many monarchies and revolutionary governments became more repressive in the immediate decades to follow, with heightened censorship, reduction in rights, and consolidation of power by the original targets of the 1848 revolutions.
Revolutionaries in 1848 succeeded in achieving the slogans of their goals such as constitutions, democracy, and suffrage but this ended in violent suppression by the powers that be. The nice words of the revolution ended up as empty slogans without real change behind them. Examples include “liberty, equality and fraternity” associated with French revolutionary ideals, but without real reforms these fell on empty ears and produced limited results.
The key failings of the 1848 revolutions were ultimately unclear demands, disunified leadership, and limited steps to address economic hardships. Leadership split around competing interpretations of these ideals, leading to further infighting and chaos. Furthermore, the population was not empowered by the new regimes to increase their political voice and economic outlook.
Truly, what were we fighting for?
The very positive news, however, is that the reforms pushed through the 1848 revolutions started to emerge in the latter half of the 19th century. Memories of violent street demonstrations coupled with powerful 1848 revolutionary propaganda reminded governments that they could not afford to ignore their constituents or the economic, social and technological norms that had led to the events of 1848. This increased accountability led to the reforms sought by the 1848 revolutionaries, and added weight to the slogans and demands to sway economic and political change in Europe over the latter half of the 19th century.
Similar parallels could be drawn today amid rapid technological change, economic disruption, and widening political divides. Meanwhile, concentrated wealth and rigid power structures can block engagement with the economic benefits of technological change, leaving many behind in systems that, as reflected in approval ratings, are seen as increasingly less effective at serving the public.
In the face of uncertainty stemming from years of Napoleonic Wars, the Congress of Vienna’s answer was to create a rigid status quo that was, in many ways, ill suited to flexibly navigate the technological and economic headwinds while maintaining the status quo. The 1848 revolutions further fell short to augment humanity and provide inclusive and meaningful benefits to a populace hungry for representation and economic empowerment.
I don’t want to see a revolution. I would prefer instead a more meaningful public discussion on where society is heading in the face of rapid economic and technological change. Where I hope that discussion leads is better systems that are resilient to uncertainty as opposed to the rigid and stifling approach taken by the Congress of Vienna. An ethical, human-centered vision that enhances human potential, empowers our sense of self and community, and distributes benefits broadly should be the goal.
For simplicity I focus on France, but from January 1848-October 1849 revolutions impacted Ireland, France, the German and Italian States, Denmark, Austria, Hungary, Sweden, Switzerland, Poland, and Romania (at least). This was the most widespread revolutionary wave in European history.
There were revolutions, regional wars, and conflicts during this period, but none matched the scope or scale of the Napoleonic Wars or the World Wars.
Good piece here. We do live in uncertain times but there's been a distinct economic trend maturing over my lifetime and that is the shrinking middle class when most of my father's generation could earn a middle class income without a degree working in a mfg. plant now our society props college education as A-1 priority to earn a decent living. This has become a fallacy as both political parties have abandoned trades and we have not promoted alternative paths for secondary education. I don't know why that is my biggest take away here but it seems like kids are less educated, more misinformed and radicalized, and don't know how to shovel themselves out of debt they've dug themselves into.
This is an urgently important piece of history that resonates in bas-relief, were our contemporary common herd even interested in history -- or reading, for that matter. This story of historical past reads like an allegory of a dystopian future. I awoke this morning thinking about the potential risk of Musk & Trump, et al. ultimately generating a Bolshevik society. What Dennis has commented here about true leadership -- let's hope for that and not a fascist. Thanks for writing this. I will restack.